SOCIAL ISOLATION POLICIES AGAINST CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
AND ITS IMPACT ON METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS
POLÍTICAS DE AISLAMIENTO SOCIAL CONTRA LA PANDEMIA DEL
CORONAVIRUS Y SU IMPACTO EN LOS SISTEMAS DE OBSERVACIÓN METEOROLÓGICA
María
Alejandra Ruano[1],
Manuel Zambrano[2]
|
Palabras
clave: COVID-19; observación meteorológica;
aviación comercial; satélites meteorológicos; atmósfera; clima |
Resumen La pandemia por COVID-19 ha obligado a
la mayoría de los países del mundo a adoptar políticas estrictas de
aislamiento social. Como consecuencia, ha habido efectos indirectos positivos
y negativos sobre el medio ambiente. Por ejemplo, algunos países han
informado mejoras en la calidad del aire, playas más limpias y disminución
del ruido ambiental. Sin embargo, también ha habido efectos indirectos
negativos. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar los efectos de las
políticas de aislamiento social en los sistemas de observación meteorológica.
Se encontró que las observaciones meteorológicas desde aeronaves, así como
las observaciones desde la superficie, se han visto muy afectadas. En menor
medida, las mediciones marinas y satelitales se han visto afectadas. Nuestra
investigación destaca la importancia de tener un sistema de observación
meteorológica automatizado y resistente, así como métodos complementarios
para monitorear la atmósfera y el clima. Códigos JEL: Q52, Q54 |
|
Keywords: COVID-19; meteorological
observation; commercial aircraft; meteorological satellites; atmosphere;
weather |
Abstract
The COVID-19
pandemic has forced most countries in the world to adopt strict policies of
social isolation. As a consequence, there have been
positive and negative indirect effects on the environment. For example, some
countries have reported improvements in air quality, cleaner beaches, and
decreased environmental noise. However, there have also been negative
indirect effects. This research aims to analyze the effects of social
isolation policies on meteorological observation systems. It was found that
the meteorological observations from aircraft as well as surface-based
observations have been strongly affected. To a lesser extent, marine and
satellite measurements have been affected. Our research highlights the
importance of having a resilient and automated meteorological observation
system, as well as complementary methods of monitoring the atmosphere and
weather. |
The rapid spread of the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, is causing
fatalities worldwide since its first detection in December 2019 (Li et al.,
2020). A coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with no previous history of infecting human
beings started this pandemic. In early 2020, the World Health Organization
(WHO) declared this coronavirus disease to be a public health emergency of
international concern (He et al., 2020).
One of the indirect effects
recently noted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is on the quantity
and quality of meteorological observations and forecasts, as well as in the
atmosphere and climate monitoring activities (WMO, 2020).
Although the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) continue to provide real-time
information without interruption due to its automation, the cessation of
economic activities as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic is putting its normal operation at risk. This risk is because the
repair, maintenance, and provisioning of the equipment have been discontinued.
Also, meteorological measurements taken from aircraft have dropped by an
average of 75-80% in comparison to the normal number of measurements taken.
Although there are very marked differences depending on the region in question:
in the southern region of the planet, the decrease is practically 90% (WMO,
2020). For their part, surface-based meteorological observations have also been
affected, mainly in Africa and parts of Central and South America, where many
stations are not automated and constantly require manual operation.
This research aims to expose
the indirect effects of COVID-19 on the different sources of meteorological
information, which allow providing information on the state of the atmosphere
and the surface of the ocean. Thanks to these data, analyzes, forecasts, and
meteorological warnings are made, so analyzing their correct operation is of
utmost importance to the world. After the literature was reviewed, there is no
evidence of previous work on the subject, so this research seeks to fill this
theoretical gap. The rest of the article is structured as follows: in section
2, the indirect effects of COVID-19 on each of the meteorological data sources
are detailed, and section 3 concludes with the main findings.
In addition
to offering air transport services to people, commercial aircraft automatically
collect, process and transmit meteorological
observations to ground stations via satellite or radio links. This operation is
possible because aircraft have sensors, computers, and communications systems
that allow them to collect such information.
Figure 1. Transmission of meteorological information
from commercial aircraft.
Date: January 31 2020
Date: May 4 2020
Source: WMO (2020)
With the observation system of
the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR), approximately 800,000
observations are generated daily on air temperature
and wind speed and direction. Also, an increasing number of humidity and
turbulence measurements are obtained. Currently, 43 airlines and several
thousand aircraft contribute to the AMDAR Program, from which a notable
expansion would be expected in the coming years as a result of the
participation of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in it (WMO,
2020).
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial
flights have decreased dramatically and with it the transmission of
meteorological information. Thus, in certain parts of the world, the
meteorological information provided by commercial aircraft has dropped between
75% to 80%. The drop is close to 90% in some of the most vulnerable areas where
other surface-based observations are scarce, for example, in the tropics and
the southern hemisphere. Figure 1 shows the decrease in the transmission of
meteorological information of commercial aircraft from January 2020 (without
the pandemic) to May 2020 (with the pandemic).
Surface-based observations
Most developed countries have automatic surface
weather stations, but not developing countries. In the latter, the collection
of meteorological information is usually done manually and then transmitted to
international networks for use in global weather and climate models.
By establishing social isolation policies in most
countries in the world, manual weather collection processes have been severely
affected. Figure 2 shows that this has occurred mainly in African countries and
some in Central and South American countries.
Figure 2. Countries that have not transmitted
surface-based meteorological information.
Date: October 1 2019
Date: April 28 2020
Marine observations
The oceans cover about 71% of the Earth's surface (Rahmstorf, 2002). Therefore, many meteorological
observation systems are located over most of the world's oceans.
Most ocean observing systems are automated, so much of
their components are expected to continue to function correctly for several
months.
However, special instruments such as drifting buoys
and floats will have to be deployed again . The moored
buoys require constant repairs, as well as the observation systems onboard
ships, which must frequently undergo maintenance, calibration, and replenishment
operations. Therefore, it is expected that, over time, there will be a gradual
decrease in the number of observations, and that this reduction will continue
until the necessary provisioning and maintenance activities can be resumed
(WMO, 2020).
Figure 3. Spherical surface float.
Source:
Lumpkin (2010).
Observations by meteorological satellites
Since the launch of the first meteorological satellite
in April 1960 (Figure 4), meteorological satellites have become an
indispensable part of the basic and strategic resources for economic and social
development in all countries of the world. As environmental pollution problems,
resource scarcity, and natural disasters get worse and worse, the role of
meteorological satellites in weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, and
disaster mitigation and prevention has become more important than never (Guo et
al. 2019; Zhou et al., 2006).
The operational stability of meteorological satellites
has made much of the scientific community trust in its ability to observe the
climate. Currently, 30 meteorological satellites and 200 research satellites
provide continuous and highly automated observations (WMO, 2020).
These satellites are operated by members of the
Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) and the Committee on
Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Although the spatial component of the
observation system is expected to be unaffected and remain fully operational in
the short term, international climate agencies should assess the possible
long-term indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on this type of artificial
satellites.
Figure 4. The world's first weather satellite: TIROS-1
Source: NOAA (2016).
DISCUSSION
The new coronavirus has generated unprecedented
impacts worldwide. Most countries have adopted strict measures of social
isolation as a way to curb the spread of the disease.
These measures have had significant indirect effects on the environment. For
example, air quality has improved in many countries, environmental noise has
decreased, and natural resources such as beaches are less polluted. However,
there have also been negative side effects.
This research analyzes the indirect effects of
COVID-19 on the different meteorological observation systems. Meteorological observation
systems are important because they provide information about the state of the
atmosphere and the surface of the ocean employing terrestrial, marine, and
spatial instruments. Thanks to these data, analysis, forecasts, and
meteorological warnings are prepared.
On the one hand, the flow of commercial aircraft
travel has decreased. As a consequence, meteorological
reports from this type of source have also fallen. Some countries are
conducting additional radiosonde launches in order to
partially mitigate the loss of aircraft data, particularly in Europe. These
types of instruments are launched with the help of weather balloons. On their
journey from the surface to altitudes that can reach 30 kilometers, they
transmit measurements of fundamental meteorological variables (WMO, 2020).
On the other hand, meteorological information from
surface-based sources has also fallen. An explanation for this lies in the fact
that many of these sources are not automated, and therefore require human intervention
for their proper functioning. As quarantine policies are in force in most
countries, the latter has not been possible. The mainly affected regions are in
Africa, Central, and South America.
Marine and satellite weather sources have been least
affected by social isolation measures. This is because these sources are
automated in their operation and require little human intervention (just for
maintenance). However, some projects in operation, such as the Voluntary
Observing Ship Program (VOS), have suffered a reduction in the amount of data
available of about 20% with respect to the usual levels (WMO, 2020).
Although the global impact of the reduction in
meteorological observations may not be thoroughly evaluated or fully understood
until long after the pandemic has ended, the new coronavirus clearly highlights
the importance of having a resilient and automated meteorological observation
system, as well as complementary methods of monitoring the atmosphere and
climate.
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[1] Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral,
Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanísticas, ESPOL, Campus "Gustavo
Galindo", Km. 30.5 vía Perimetral, Cuarto paradero, Guayaquil, (Ecuador).
E-mail: maruano@espol.edu.ec
[2] Universidad Espíritu Santo (UEES),
(Ecuador).
E-mail: manuelzambranom@uees.edu.ec