The BNDES’ disbursements, investment, and growth rate in Brazil from 1953 to 2013
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Publicado
ago 31, 2018
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Resumen
In this article, we analyze the behavior of the BNDES’ disbursements, investments in machinery and equipment, and the growth rate, from 1953 to 2013. We find that investments in machinery and equipment lead the BNDES’ disbursements through an Error Correction Model (ECM). Also, we show that the BNDES positively affected investment and growth during long-term economic expansions (procyclical performance) and contributed positively to investment but not to growth during long-term economic recessions.
Palabras clave
BNDES, Investment, Business Cycle, Brazil, Growth.
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Citas
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Baer, W., A Villela. (1980). The Changing Nature of Development Banking in Brazil. Journal of international Studies and World Affairs 4, 423-440.
Berrimger de Assumpção. T. (2014). Bloco no Poder e politica externa nos governos FHC e Luna. Ph.D., diss. Universidade Estudal de Campinas.
Cortes-Conde, R. (2007). Fiscal and Monetary Regimes. In V. Bulmer-Thomas, J. Coatsworth, y R. Cortes-Conde (Eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Latin America, Volume 2: The Long Twentieth Century (pp. 209-248). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cameron, R. (1953). The crédit mobilier and the Economic Development of Europe. The Journal of Political Economy 6, 461-488.
____. (1958). Economic Growth and Stagnation in France, 1815-1914. The Journal of Modern History 1, 1-13.
_____. (1961). France and the Economic Development of Europe, 1800, 1914. NY: Princeton University Press.
_____. (1972a). Banking and Economic Development. Some Lessons from History. NY: Oxford University Press.
_____. (1972b). “Belgium, 1800-1875.” Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization. Editado por Rondo Cameron, 129-150. Boston: Oxford University Press.
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Diniz, A. (2002). BNDES: de agente desenvolvimentista a gestor de privatização 1952-2002. Master’s diss., Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
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Fonsenca Cabral, N. C. (2012). Atuação do BNDES como mecanismo de financimento de longo prazo no Brasil entre 2006-2010. Undergradute’s diss. Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic of Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Baltimore: Frederick A. Praeger.
Goodhart., CA.E. (2011). The Changing Role of Central Banks. Financial History Review 18: 135-154.
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La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes., and Shlifer. (2002). “A Government Ownership Banks.” The Journal of Finance 57, 265-301.
Luna-Martínez, J., C.L. Vicente. (2012). Global Survey of Development Banks. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
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Nyhart, J., and J. Edmond. (1967). A Global Directory of Development Finance Institutions in Developing Countries. Paris: OECD.
Patrick, H. (1972a). “Japan, 1868-1914.” In Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization, edited by R. Cameron, 239-289. Boston: Oxford University Press.
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Ramirez, M.D. (1986). Development Banking in Mexico: The Case of the Nacional Financiera, S.A. Westport,CT: Praeger.
Raposo Braga, J.L. (2014). O papel do BNDES na política externa do governo Lula da Silva: internacionalicao e integracao regional na América do sul. PhD., diss., Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge: Harvard University.
Saad-Filho, A. (2013). “Mass Protests under ‘Left Neoliberalism’: Brazil.” Critical Sociology 39, 657-669.
Roberts, M. (2009). The Great Recession. New York: Lulu.com.
Solomou, S. (1998). Economic Cycles: Long Cycles and Business Cycles since 1980 (Insights from Economic History). Manchester: Manchester University
Stallings, B., and R. Studart. (2006.) Finance for Development: Latin America in Comparative Perspective. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press.
Stiglitz, J. (1994). “The Role of the State in Financial Markets.” Proceedings of the World Bank Annul Conference of Economic Development 1993. Washington D.C: World Bank.
Studart, R. (1995). Investment Finance in Economic Development. NY: Routledge.
Studart, R. (1998). Políticas financieras y crecimiento en el contexto del desarrollo: lecciones derivadas de América Latina y del Sudeste Asiático en los años ochenta. Investigación Económica 57, 15-42.
Tilly, R. (1972b). Germany. In Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization. Ed. R. Cameron, 239-289. Boston: Oxford University Press.
Tilly, R. (1992). An Overview on the Role of the Large German Banks up to 1914. In Finance and Financiers in European History, 1880-1860. Ed. Y. Cassis, 91-112. Paris: Cambridge University Press.
Vernengo, M. (2016). “Kicking away the Ladder. Too: Inside Central Banks.” Journal of Institutional Issues 50, 452-460.
Yeyati, E.L., A. Micc., and U. Panizza. (2004). Should the Government be in the Banking Business? The Role of State-Owned and Development Bank. Lima: IDB-IIC Annual Meeting.
Armendáriz, Beatriz. (1999). Development Banking. Journal of Economic Development 58, 83-100.
Amsden, A. (2001). The Rise of “The Rest”. Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies. NY: Oxford University Press.
BACEN. (2016). “Sereis Temporais.” Banco do Brasil. www.bcb.gov.br/?serietmp (accessed May 8, 2016)
BNDES. (1996). O BNDES e o Plano de Metas. Brasil: Rio de Janeiro.
BNDES. (2002). BNDES, 50 anos de desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: BNDES.
Ban, C. (2013). “Brazil’s liberal neo-developmentalism: New paradigm or edited orthodoxy?: Review of International Political Economy 2: 298-331.
Baer, W., A Villela. (1980). The Changing Nature of Development Banking in Brazil. Journal of international Studies and World Affairs 4, 423-440.
Berrimger de Assumpção. T. (2014). Bloco no Poder e politica externa nos governos FHC e Luna. Ph.D., diss. Universidade Estudal de Campinas.
Cortes-Conde, R. (2007). Fiscal and Monetary Regimes. In V. Bulmer-Thomas, J. Coatsworth, y R. Cortes-Conde (Eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Latin America, Volume 2: The Long Twentieth Century (pp. 209-248). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cameron, R. (1953). The crédit mobilier and the Economic Development of Europe. The Journal of Political Economy 6, 461-488.
____. (1958). Economic Growth and Stagnation in France, 1815-1914. The Journal of Modern History 1, 1-13.
_____. (1961). France and the Economic Development of Europe, 1800, 1914. NY: Princeton University Press.
_____. (1972a). Banking and Economic Development. Some Lessons from History. NY: Oxford University Press.
_____. (1972b). “Belgium, 1800-1875.” Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization. Editado por Rondo Cameron, 129-150. Boston: Oxford University Press.
Chin, G. (2014). “The BRICS-led Development Bank: Purpose and Politics beyond the G20.” Global Policy 5, 366-372.
Curralero. C. (1998). A atuacão do sistema BNDES como instituição financeira no período 1952/1996, Master’s diss. Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Diniz, A. (2002). BNDES: de agente desenvolvimentista a gestor de privatização 1952-2002. Master’s diss., Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Epstein, G. (2006). Central Banks as Agents of Economic Development. ONU-WIDER, Research Paper No. 2006/54.
Foley, D.F., and T.R. Michl. (1999). Growth and Distribution. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Fonsenca Cabral, N. C. (2012). Atuação do BNDES como mecanismo de financimento de longo prazo no Brasil entre 2006-2010. Undergradute’s diss. Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic of Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Baltimore: Frederick A. Praeger.
Goodhart., CA.E. (2011). The Changing Role of Central Banks. Financial History Review 18: 135-154.
Guth, F. (2006). O BNDES nos anos 1990: uma análise keynesiana. Master’s diss., Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.
Hochstetler, K., A.P. Montero. (2013). “The Renewed Developmental State: The National Development Bank and the Brazil Model.” The Journal of Development Studies 49. 1484-499.
Hochstetler, K. (2014). “The Brazilian National Development Bank goes International: Innovations and Limitations of BNDES’ Internationalization.’ Global Policy 5: 360-365.
Isidro Luna, V.M. (2015). “The Changing Role of BNDES from Import-Substitution to Neoliberalism: A Marxian Explanation.” Revista de Economia 85. 9-34.
Isidro Luna, V.M. (2016). “BRICS’ Bank: Possibilities and Constraints.” Economia Informa 298, 3-22.
La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes., and Shlifer. (2002). “A Government Ownership Banks.” The Journal of Finance 57, 265-301.
Luna-Martínez, J., C.L. Vicente. (2012). Global Survey of Development Banks. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
Maddison, A. (2016). “Historical Statistics.” http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Maddison.htm.
(accessed December 16, 2016).
Marichal Salinas, C. (2014). Historia mínima de la deuda externa de Latinoamérica. México: El Colegio de México.
Marquetti, A., E. Maldonado, and V. Lautert. (2010). “The Profit Rate in Brazil.” Review of Radical Political Economics 42: 485-504.
Marquetti, A., and Soares Porse, M de C. (2014). “Patrones de progreso técnico en la economia brasileña.” Revista Cepal 113, 61-78.
Morais, L. and A. Saad-Filho. (2011). “Brazil beyond Lula: Foreign or plausible breath?’ Latin American Perspectives 177, 31-44.
Nassif, A., and C. Feijó. (2013). “Liberal versus neo-developmental convention to growth: Why Brazil show a poor performance since the 1980s?’ Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 33, 555-576.
Nyhart, J., and J. Edmond. (1967). A Global Directory of Development Finance Institutions in Developing Countries. Paris: OECD.
Patrick, H. (1972a). “Japan, 1868-1914.” In Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization, edited by R. Cameron, 239-289. Boston: Oxford University Press.
Presidência da República Federativa do Brasil. (2016). Ipeadata. www.ipeadata.gov.br (accessed March 16, 2016)
Ramirez, M.D. (1986). Development Banking in Mexico: The Case of the Nacional Financiera, S.A. Westport,CT: Praeger.
Raposo Braga, J.L. (2014). O papel do BNDES na política externa do governo Lula da Silva: internacionalicao e integracao regional na América do sul. PhD., diss., Universidade Estadual de Campinas.
Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge: Harvard University.
Saad-Filho, A. (2013). “Mass Protests under ‘Left Neoliberalism’: Brazil.” Critical Sociology 39, 657-669.
Roberts, M. (2009). The Great Recession. New York: Lulu.com.
Solomou, S. (1998). Economic Cycles: Long Cycles and Business Cycles since 1980 (Insights from Economic History). Manchester: Manchester University
Stallings, B., and R. Studart. (2006.) Finance for Development: Latin America in Comparative Perspective. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press.
Stiglitz, J. (1994). “The Role of the State in Financial Markets.” Proceedings of the World Bank Annul Conference of Economic Development 1993. Washington D.C: World Bank.
Studart, R. (1995). Investment Finance in Economic Development. NY: Routledge.
Studart, R. (1998). Políticas financieras y crecimiento en el contexto del desarrollo: lecciones derivadas de América Latina y del Sudeste Asiático en los años ochenta. Investigación Económica 57, 15-42.
Tilly, R. (1972b). Germany. In Banking in the Early Stages of Industrialization. Ed. R. Cameron, 239-289. Boston: Oxford University Press.
Tilly, R. (1992). An Overview on the Role of the Large German Banks up to 1914. In Finance and Financiers in European History, 1880-1860. Ed. Y. Cassis, 91-112. Paris: Cambridge University Press.
Vernengo, M. (2016). “Kicking away the Ladder. Too: Inside Central Banks.” Journal of Institutional Issues 50, 452-460.
Yeyati, E.L., A. Micc., and U. Panizza. (2004). Should the Government be in the Banking Business? The Role of State-Owned and Development Bank. Lima: IDB-IIC Annual Meeting.